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Yes the headline writers had a field day. Frederik Andersen went through a rough patch in the NHL while playing for the Toronto Maple Leafs and surface stats made it easy to write an obituary. Raw goals against and a dipped save percentage are attention grabbers. They are not the whole story though and the hockey analytics crowd would like to remind you that numbers can lie when you only look at a handful of games.

What the deeper numbers say

Expected goals against and high danger save percentage reveal context that raw save percentage misses. Andersen faced a lot of high danger chances in some of those games. That can come from defensive breakdowns in front of him or from repeated rebound opportunities that the team failed to clear. When the puck keeps coming back to the slot it does not matter how nice your glove is, the odds stack up against you.

Key goaltending factors to track

• Save percentage This is useful but noisy over small samples.
• High danger save percentage Better at separating a goalie from the defensive unit.
• Expected goals against Shows shot quality the goalie actually faced.
• Rebound control Where does the puck go after the first save and how often do teammates clean it up.
• Puck tracking and lateral quickness How well the goalie locates shots through screens and covers cross slot passes.

Small sample hell and traffic in front

We love drama but a dozen games can produce misleading trends. Andersen had stretches with overloaded slot plays and odd man chances that inflated goals against figures. That matters because hockey analytics are only as good as the context you apply. Shot quality across 40 games is a much more reliable indicator than panic based on a two week run of bad outcomes.

What video study still tells us

Numbers tell you where to look. Video tells you why. Look for recovery speed after saves, where rebounds are directed, and whether tracking through screens is lagging. Andersen has shown good positioning and the technical tools to bounce back. The complaints that stick are about occasional slow recoveries and rebound placement into dangerous areas.

Practical takeaways for fans and analysts

• Do not declare a starter dead based on a short slump. Watch trends in expected goals and high danger save percentage over a larger sample.
• Combine analytics with video. Metrics flag problems. footage tells you if it is technique or team breakdowns.
• Track rebound control metrics and how the Maple Leafs clear the slot after the first save. That is where a lot of goals are decided.

In short Frederik Andersen has had ugly games and deserves scrutiny. He is not a lost cause though. Use hockey analytics smartly and stop acting surprised every time the puck finds the slot. Fans will relax when rebound management and consistency improve and the defensive unit learns to tidy up front. Until then enjoy the speculation and keep the metrics handy.